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FRBNY DSGE-DFM Real-Time Forecast

Last Updated: July 18, 2020


Next Update: July 31, 2020


Aggregate Output & GDP Components

The model does not capture the impact of COVID-19 beyond its impact on economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate the impact of COVID-19 on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard dynamics of the model.

This website presents the latest update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s (FRBNY) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model estimated in a data rich environment.  For more information about the model and data sets forecasted here, see my DSGE-DFM paper.

The tables below show the model's median forecasts for numerous macroeconomic variables including variables not directly incorporated in the FRBNY DSGE model.  The charts below graph the projected time path for various macroeconomic variables.  In the charts, the black line represents actual data and the blue line shows the model's median forecast.  The shaded areas mark the 50, 60, 75 and 90 percent bayesian intervals. For any questions or inquires about the model please contact me at  


Interest Rates, Yield Curve & Consumer Sentiment

Labor Market Metrics

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