FRBNY DSGE-DFM Real-Time Forecast

Last Updated: February 7, 2020

Archives

Next Update: February 28, 2020

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Aggregate Output & GDP Components

Real GDP

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Real GDI

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IP:Total

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Real Consumption

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Real Investment

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Real Exports

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This website presents the latest update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s (FRBNY) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model estimated in a data rich environment.  For more information about the model and data sets forecasted here, see my DSGE-DFM paper.


The tables below show the model's median forecasts for numerous macroeconomic variables including variables not directly incorporated in the FRBNY DSGE model.  The charts below graph the projected time path for various macroeconomic variables.  In the charts, the black line represents actual data and the blue line shows the model's median forecast.  The shaded areas mark the 50, 60, 75 and 90 percent bayesian intervals. For any questions or inquires about the model please contact me at sgelfer@bentley.edu.  

Inflation

Core PCE

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Core CPI

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GDP Deflator

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Headline PCE

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Headline CPI

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S&P 500

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Interest Rates, Yield Curve & Consumer Sentiment

Federal Funds Rate

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Projected Yield Curve

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Projected Yield Curve

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BAA Corporate Bond

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10-Yeary Treasury

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University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

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Labor Market Metrics

Real Wage Growth

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Total Hours Worked

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Unemployment Rate

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