FRBNY DSGE-DFM Real-Time Forecast

Last Updated: December 14, 2018

Archives

Next Update: January 4,  2019

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Aggregate Output & GDP Components

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This website presents the latest update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s (FRBNY) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model estimated in a data rich environment.  For more information about the model and data sets forecasted here, see my DSGE-DFM paper.


The tables below show the model's median forecasts for numerous macroeconomic variables including variables not directly incorporated in the FRBNY DSGE model.  The charts below graph the projected time path for various macroeconomic variables.  In the charts, the black line represents actual data and the blue line shows the model's median forecast.  The shaded areas mark the 50, 60, 75 and 90 percent bayesian intervals. For any questions or inquires about the model please contact me at sgelfer@bentley.edu.  

Inflation

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Interest Rates, Yield Curve & Consumer Sentiment

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Labor Market Metrics

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