FRBNY DSGE-DFM Real-Time Forecast

Last Updated: May 15, 2020

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Next Update: May 22, 2020

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Aggregate Output & GDP Components

Real GDP

Real GDI

IP:Total

Real Consumption

Real Investment

Real Exports

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The model does not capture the impact of COVID-19 beyond its impact on economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate the impact of COVID-19 on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard dynamics of the model.

This website presents the latest update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s (FRBNY) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model estimated in a data rich environment.  For more information about the model and data sets forecasted here, see my DSGE-DFM paper.


The tables below show the model's median forecasts for numerous macroeconomic variables including variables not directly incorporated in the FRBNY DSGE model.  The charts below graph the projected time path for various macroeconomic variables.  In the charts, the black line represents actual data and the blue line shows the model's median forecast.  The shaded areas mark the 50, 60, 75 and 90 percent bayesian intervals. For any questions or inquires about the model please contact me at sgelfer@bentley.edu.  

Inflation

Core PCE

Core CPI

GDP Deflator

Headline PCE

Headline CPI

S&P 500

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Interest Rates, Yield Curve & Consumer Sentiment

Federal Funds Rate

Projected Yield Curve

Projected Yield Curve

BAA Corporate Bond

10-Yeary Treasury

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

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Labor Market Metrics

Real Wage Growth

Total Hours Worked

Unemployment Rate

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