Federal Funds Rate

Projected Yield Curve

Projected Yield Curve

BAA Corporate Bond

10-Yeary Treasury

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment


Real Wage Growth

Total Hours Worked

Unemployment Rate


Labor Market Metrics

Interest Rates, Yield Curve & Consumer Sentiment

Aggregate Output & GDP Components

Real GDP

Real GDI


Real Consumption

Real Investment

Real Exports



Core PCE

Core CPI

GDP Deflator


FRBNY DSGE-DFM Real-Time Forecast

Last Updated: February 15, 2018


This website presents the latest update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s (FRBNY) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model estimated in a data rich environment.  For more information about the model and data sets forecasted here, see my DSGE-DFM paper.

The tables below show the model's median forecasts for numerous macroeconomic variables including variables not directly incorporated in the FRBNY DSGE model.  The charts below graph the projected time path for various macroeconomic variables.  In the charts, the black line represents actual data and the blue line shows the model's median forecast.  The shaded areas mark the 50, 60, 75 and 90 percent bayesian intervals. For any questions or inquires about the model please contact me at sgelfer@bentley.edu.